Five projects, budget for three

Five projects, budget for three

Discretion comes first, so every case is illustrative. The method is real.

Where it started

A medtech company making urinary catheters had five development projects running, and budget and people for three. Every project had an owner who could argue for it, and the arguments did not use the same yardstick.

The strategic question

Which projects continue, which pause, and which stop?

What we found

Each project was scored 1–5 on potential, cost, time and risk, on scales agreed with management before any project was scored. Potential divided by the other three gave a priority score. The score was the starting point, not the answer: each project was then held up against technology, commercial, rights and organization. Every project got a one-pager with both.

Project

Potential

Cost

Time

Risk

Priority score

Peak sales / yr

The pillars say

A · Hydrophilic coating, next generation

3

1

1

1

1.00

€40M

Ready

B · Compact catheter for travel

4

2

2

2

0.67

€75M

Strong market pull

D · Shared packaging platform

3

2

3

2

0.43

€75M

Lowers cost for B and E

E · Catheter with infection-reducing surface

5

5

5

5

0.33

€300M

Technology not ready. Largest upside

C · Connected app for catheter users

1

2

2

3

0.14

€25M

Low commercial pull

Three directions

01

MVP

A and B, closest to launch

3-year spend
€5–7M
Peak sales / yr
€115M
Risk
Low. The pipeline thins after year 2
02CHOSEN

Golden opportunity

A, B and platform D, the top three on priority

3-year spend
€13–16M
Peak sales / yr
€190M
Risk
Medium
03

Full ambition

All five, with added headcount and partners

3-year spend
€28–32M
Peak sales / yr
€515M
Risk
High. Resources spread thin

What was chosen

Golden opportunity. C stopped. E paused with a written restart condition: proof from an external study that the surface works. Platform D lowers E’s cost when it restarts.

What it gave the client

Every project owner could see why, on the same yardstick. The decision held when the budget was challenged.